Highwaters
Assessment of exposure scenarios and social vulnerability to sea level rise for the sustainable use of the territory
High waters - Tasks
The conceptual model of the project is organized into three Working Packages (WP), that contains 7 interdependent tasks. WP1 includes the first three tasks devoted to the diagnosis of sea level rise risk driving forces. WP2 includes tasks 4 and 5 that are devoted to mid- and long-term sea level rise risk scenarios. WP3 includes two tasks and aims to build mid- and long-term sea level rise risk management and adaptation strategies.
Task 1
Identification and validation of sea level rise hazard zones
Task 1
Identification and validation of sea level rise hazard zones
This first task aims at producing the baseline assessment for the sea level rise framework that will support the next tasks. Flood hazard maps are generated for three different periods (2040, 2070 and 2100), classified in terms of severity of the forecasted sea levels and their areas of influence, which will be used for exposure, vulnerability and sea level rise risk scenarios assessments in the next tasks. The main objective of this task is to validate the global flooding model for sea level rise hazard zones (SLRHZ) along the Portuguese mainland coastal areas.
Task 2
Changes in land use and exposure in zones at risk of sea level rise
This task will use the validated sea level rise risk baseline obtained in the previous task to measure recent and actual exposure of potentially at risk elements. Task 2 draws our attention to land use change over the last few decades, including a detailed analysis of exposed elements that are within the boundaries of the sea level rise hazard zones. The main objectives of this task are to:
i) identify and describe the land use change from 2001 to the present day in the SLRHZ;
ii) evaluate the spatial construction of the environment dynamic since 2001;
iii) identify and characterize spatial statistics over time series and create reference baselines for demography, building environment and criticism infrastructures from the recent past to the present day at SLRHZ;
iv) create a baseline assessment for sea level rise exposure.
Task 3
Social vulnerability in areas at risk of rising sea levels
This task is designed to address the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the sea level rise hazard zones population that can represent drivers for sea level rise hazard consequences, over the last decades. The main objectives of this task are:
i) to identify and characterize the demographic and socio-economic setting, regarding the known sea level rise social vulnerability drivers (e.g. age, housing conditions, economic situation, education, gender, employment, among others to extract from the collected data);
ii) to differentiate local contexts of social vulnerability to sea level rise over the last decades.
Task 4
Exposure scenarios in the projected sea level rise hazard zones
Task 4 uses the territorial limits of the sea level rise hazard zones, validated in task 1, and the land use change and build-environment evolution analysis performed in task 2. The exposure prediction in mid and long-term scenarios (2040, 2070 and 2100) for sea level rise hazardous zones along the coastal areas of Portugal mainland will be accounted for. The main objectives of this task are:
i) to map and classify future urban expansion areas within the boundaries of the projected SLRHZ scenarios;
ii) to estimate the population, buildings and critical infrastructures exposed within this time range and considering different SLR scenarios;
iii) to map the 2040, 2070 and 2100, exposure over the study area.
Task 5
Social vulnerability scenarios in the sea level rise projected hazard zones
Task's 5 main objective is to provide projections of future sea level rise social vulnerability and coping capacity drivers within the scenarios for 2040, 2070 and 2100 taking into account the spatial evolution of the sea level rise hazard zones, land use land cover changes and spatial planning instruments. The approach for obtaining a final projection follows two steps:
1 - independent projection of demography, social vulnerability drivers (e.g. age and housing conditions) and respective indexes, and land use land cover.
2 - Iterative projection. Projections of complex system’s inputs such as the societal and natural systems require a multivariate and spatio-temporal analysis of trends.
Task 6
Municipal sea level rise risk profiles
Task's 6 aim is to build risk profiles of the Portuguese municipalities affected by present and mid to long-term sea level rise, using cluster analysis to identify the dominant driving forces in each municipality. The spatial distribution and the mid to long-term trends of sea level rise at municipal level in Portugal may have distinct causes that can be addressed exploiting the 4 driving forces (hazard, exposure, vulnerability and coping capacity), identified in tasks 1, 2 and 3 of this project. The objectives, which will be addressed at the municipal level, are:
i) to assess sea level rise risk on the coastal municipalities of Portugal using a dataset of variables that allow characterizing the different dimensions of risk (hazard, exposure vulnerability and coping capacity), normalizing and weighting the variables to compute a sea level rise risk index;
ii) to perform a cluster analysis and to rank the municipal sea level rise risk, identifying risk profiles for different groups of municipalities.
Task 7
Roadmap for sea level rise adaptation
Projected municipal sea level rise risk profiles will be of fundamental importance in the design of the adaptation strategies capable of dealing with sea level rise. The main objective of this task is to design a roadmap for adaptation to sea level rise, including a timeline for the implementation of adaptation and setback land use planning measures at municipality level. The roadmap for adaptation will consider the spatial and temporal dynamics of sea level rise hazard zones, the evolution of the projected land use, exposure, vulnerability and coping capacity to propose resettlement alternatives for the expected setbacks. Mainly, as the risk drivers change at the municipal level, the adaptation measures need to be tailored to the municipal risk profiles to fit only the necessary and timely land use planning for sea level rise adaptation. The roadmap proposals will follow the best practices of coastal zone management in Portugal and worldwide.
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